How climate change reshapes firm productivity, market structure, and the direction of technology

Climate & Productivity — Measuring climate impacts on firm-level productivity and aggregate output

• Working paper Extreme Heat and Directed Innovation — Extreme heat is a labor-biased productivity shock: labor-intensive firms lose share, deepen capital, and redirect patents toward labor-saving technology.
• Working paper Climate Change and Market Power — Heat hits small firms' productivity hardest, shifting market share to large firms and raising concentration and aggregate markups.
• Working paper Misallocation of Climate Innovation: Adaptation vs Mitigation — Adaptation is a small, declining share of climate patents even as damages accelerate — and it is knowledge that firms cannot easily appropriate.
• Method Production-function estimation — Estimating firm-level production functions to measure factor-biased productivity shocks
• Method Emission accounting & supply chains — Carbon accounting through firm networks and supply-chain propagation of climate shocks
• Future direction Climate vulnerability along global supply chains — Does a firm's position in global value chains shape its exposure to climate shocks?
• Future direction Climate-driven creative destruction — Does extreme heat cleanse or scar? Entry, exit and reallocation under heat
• Future direction Demand-side climate adaptation — Does geographically diversified demand insulate firms from local weather shocks?

Innovation & Technology — Directed technical change and the innovation response to climate shocks

• Working paper Extreme Heat and Directed Innovation — Extreme heat is a labor-biased productivity shock: labor-intensive firms lose share, deepen capital, and redirect patents toward labor-saving technology.
• Working paper Misallocation of Climate Innovation: Adaptation vs Mitigation — Adaptation is a small, declining share of climate patents even as damages accelerate — and it is knowledge that firms cannot easily appropriate.
• Early stage Who Pays for Energy Efficiency? MEPS Incidence on China's Air-Conditioner Quality Ladder — Incidence of minimum energy performance standards along China's air-conditioner quality ladder.
• Method Directed technical change — Acemoglu-style models of the endogenous direction of innovation
• Method Trade & innovation — How trade and destination-market demand shape the direction of innovation
• Future direction Cooling technology & trade — Directed innovation in cooling technology and its diffusion through trade

Market Structure & Policy — How climate-driven reallocation changes concentration, markups, and welfare

• Working paper Climate Change and Market Power — Heat hits small firms' productivity hardest, shifting market share to large firms and raising concentration and aggregate markups.
• Work in progress Pricing Carbon in the Automobile Supply Chain — How carbon pricing propagates through a multi-tier automobile supply chain, and who ultimately bears the cost.
• Early stage Who Pays for Energy Efficiency? MEPS Incidence on China's Air-Conditioner Quality Ladder — Incidence of minimum energy performance standards along China's air-conditioner quality ladder.
• Method Production-function estimation — Estimating firm-level production functions to measure factor-biased productivity shocks
• Method Endogenous markups (VES) — Variable-elasticity demand where markups respond to reallocation
• Method Emission accounting & supply chains — Carbon accounting through firm networks and supply-chain propagation of climate shocks
• Future direction Climate vulnerability along global supply chains — Does a firm's position in global value chains shape its exposure to climate shocks?
• Future direction Climate-driven creative destruction — Does extreme heat cleanse or scar? Entry, exit and reallocation under heat
• Future direction Market power & optimal climate policy — Optimal climate policy when markups respond to climate-driven reallocation
• Future direction Carbon accounting & border adjustment — Carbon accounting and border-adjustment pass-through in production networks